Republicans facing ‘worst-case scenario’ in redistricting war as midterm elections near

Republicans may be facing a “worst-case scenario” in their redistricting fight with Democrats after a three-judge federal court panel ruled that Texas cannot use a racially gerrymandered congressional map hastily drawn this summer at President Donald Trump’s urging. Trump’s public push for Texas and other red states like Indiana to revise their maps ahead of […]

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Republicans may be facing a “worst-case scenario” in their redistricting fight with Democrats after a three-judge federal court panel ruled that Texas cannot use a racially gerrymandered congressional map hastily drawn this summer at President Donald Trump’s urging.

Trump’s public push for Texas and other red states like Indiana to revise their maps ahead of the 2026 elections to boost the GOP headcount in the House of Representatives spurred Democrats in California and Virginia to redraw their own. The goal in Texas was to net up to five additional Republican seats that would allow the GOP to secure the House for Trump’s final two years in office.

President Donald Trump talks with Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) at Shelby Park during a visit to the U.S.-Mexico border, Thursday, Feb. 29, 2024, in Eagle Pass, Texas. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)

The El Paso court panel said Tuesday in a 2-1 decision that “substantial evidence shows that Texas racially gerrymandered the 2025 Map,” and ordered the state to revert to the maps it had drawn in 2021.

The Texas court’s decision complicated the expected alignment between Texas and California for redistricting reforms.

California’s Proposition 50 was initially justified as a parallel action to that of Texas. There was even language in the measure stating that California would only move forward with its redistricting plans if Texas proceeded with its own plans. However, that language was removed from the measure before it reached Gov. Gavin Newsom’s (D-CA) desk for him to sign it into law. That means there was nothing written on the ballot tying its validity to Texas’s decision when Californians went to cast their votes on Proposition 50 on Nov. 4.

CALIFORNIA’S PROPOSITION 50: EVERYTHING YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT REDISTRICTING VOTE

With Texas no longer proceeding with its map, Proposition 50 stays in effect, delivering an unexpected blow to Republicans.

“This is something of a worst-case scenario for Republicans, because there was no clause when voters passed Prop 50 that it would it would be tabled if Texas was invalidated,” Dave Wasserman, the senior editor and elections analyst for the Cook Political Report, told the Washington Examiner. “So the net result is that Democrats could come out ahead in this redistricting fight if the decision in Texas is upheld. In fact, Democrats could net, effectively, the three seats they need for the majority from redistricting.”

Following the Texas decision, Newsom, who is reportedly considering a 2028 White House bid, posted on X: “Donald Trump and [Gov. Greg Abbott (R-TX)] played with fire, got burned — and democracy won. This ruling is a win for Texas, and for every American who fights for free and fair elections.”

Donald Trump and Greg Abbott played with fire, got burned — and democracy won.

This ruling is a win for Texas, and for every American who fights for free and fair elections. https://t.co/gyXPoVFMmC
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) November 18, 2025

The situation in Texas also ramps up pressure on Indiana Republicans to produce and pass a new map that favors the GOP, despite state Senate President Pro Tempore Rodric Bray saying last week there aren’t enough votes to pass a new map.

Trump unleashed on Republicans in the Hoosier State this week, threatening to back primary challenges to senators who have resisted pressure to change their maps. Republicans already hold a 7-2 advantage in the state’s congressional delegation, but Trump wants to secure more seats. He has singled out Bray and state Sen. Greg Goode (R-IN).

“Because of these two politically correct type ‘gentlemen,’ and a few others, they could be depriving Republicans of a Majority in the House, a VERY BIG DEAL!” Trump posted on Truth Social.

Soon after, Goode was the victim of a swatting call that brought sheriff’s deputies to his home on the pretense of a “domestic violence emergency.” Goode has not publicly stated his position on redistricting, but has said he will wait until he sees a map. Bray announced Friday that the state Senate would be out until January.

Gov. Mike Braun (R-IN) said that the Indiana Senate needs to have a public discussion surrounding redistricting and look at maps that are “going to hopefully come from” the Indiana House. Braun also criticized Bray and said he would consider a change in leadership in the state Senate and the caucus.

Despite the pressure, there has been little to no actual movement on Indiana passing new maps.

“The idea that we could have gone from Republicans creating an impenetrable map for themselves to, like, the Democrats now potentially gaining seats if this Texas court thing stays is an unbelievable turn of events in a short period of time,” Tim Miller, host of The Bulwark Podcast, said.

Justin Levitt, a professor at Loyola Law School, said that most “law around redistricting is up to the state, not the federal government, not federal law, and we just changed state law.” He added that he didn’t think “there are many grounds for a legal challenge against Prop. 50 to succeed.”

Last week, the Department of Justice joined a GOP-led lawsuit attempting to block California’s new map. The Trump administration argued the new districts violate the Constitution because Proposition 50 was “a rush-job rejiggering California’s congressional district lines,” and argued that “race cannot be used as a proxy to advance political interests, but that is precisely what the California General Assembly did with Proposition 50.”

The lawsuit claimed that “race was a predominant factor in drawing at least District 13 in the Proposition 50 map.”

With the passage of Proposition 50, the number of Republicans representing Californians could be cut in half. The state currently has 43 Democrats and nine Republicans in the House. Proposition 50 shifted five GOP-represented House districts into the competitive or easily winnable category for Democrats.

Specifically, the map changed districts held by Republican Reps. Kevin Kiley and Doug LaMalfa in Northern California. In Southern California, Reps. Darrell Issa and Ken Calvert are at risk, and in the Central Valley, Rep. David Valadao will likely have a much harder time getting reelected.

REDISTRICTING SETBACKS IN COURT SLOW GOP MAP PUSH AHEAD OF 2026

The new map eliminated Calvert’s Inland Empire district and created a new seat in Los Angeles County that skewed heavily toward Democrats.

Wasserman, who does not believe the federal government has much of a case against Proposition 50, called the “plot twists” leading up to the midterm election among the most extreme he has ever seen.